2022 Housing Market Yr In Evaluate

17 housing traits that outlined the yr, together with file dwelling costs and sky-high mortgage charges

The 2022 housing market was nothing in need of outstanding. The pandemic and ensuing distant work continued to outline how, when, and the place folks purchased houses. The median U.S. dwelling worth hit a file excessive earlier than falling barely. Rising rents stretched renters’ budgets. Excessive inflation put elevated strain on virtually everybody. For the primary time in historical past, mortgage charges doubled within the span of only one yr. The record goes on

On the whole, 2022 was a response to the dramatic actual property increase in 2021. The yr began with a surge in costs and progress throughout the board earlier than falling alongside file inflation within the fall. November and December noticed a a lot slower and seasonally-expected housing market, with year-over-year adjustments in hire costs, home costs, and rates of interest both falling or slowing down. 

Beneath is a non-exhaustive record of knowledge factors and visuals that outlined the 2022 housing market. 

1. Residence costs rose to an all-time excessive

In Could, the everyday dwelling bought for $430,365, a file excessive since data started in 1963, shattering 2021’s excessive of $386,000. In March, the median sale worth rose 16.8% yr over yr, the biggest share improve during the last 5 years. Following the pandemic, demand skyrocketed whereas provide remained traditionally low, inflicting a extreme housing scarcity and worth increase that continued all through 2021 and peaked halfway via 2022. In April and Could, mortgage charges rose to fight rising inflation, which started reversing housing traits from earlier within the yr. 

Regardless of a shortly cooling housing market, costs are nonetheless greater at this time than any earlier yr on file. 

2. San Francisco was the costliest metro space for homebuyers in 2022 

The median sale worth of a house in San Francisco was $1,505,000 in 2022, up 0.3% yr over yr. For one week in April, the median worth reached a excessive of $1,700,000, slightly below 2021’s all-time excessive of $1,728,000. Because the yr went on, costs dropped nearer to pre-pandemic ranges, which can probably proceed till mortgage charges fall additional.  

• Six of the highest ten costliest metros had been in California.
• Many Florida metros skilled the biggest year-over-year worth progress, together with Tampa (18%), Orlando (14.9%), Jacksonville (14.7%), and Miami (14.2%).
• Tampa had the biggest year-over-year worth progress of all giant metros within the nation. 

The highest ten costliest cities to purchase a house in 2022

Knowledge consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all houses bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Knowledge doesn’t take into consideration native median incomes and residential affordability.

3. Detroit was the least costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022

The median sale worth for a house in Detroit was $165,000 in 2022, up 3.3% yr over yr. Residence costs in Detroit hit $213,000 for per week in June, making it the costliest month of the yr however nonetheless practically 50% decrease than the nationwide median. On the whole, year-over-year worth will increase in 2022 had been smaller throughout most main metros than in 2021, and progress dipped additional heading into the primary week of December. 

• The highest ten least costly metros had been all situated within the Rust Belt, a geographic area close to the Nice Lakes.
• Philadelphia was the one giant metro that skilled a worth lower in 2022.
• Kansas Metropolis, MO was the eleventh least costly metro, and the primary non-Rust-Belt metro on the record.

The highest ten least costly cities to purchase a house in 2022

Knowledge consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all houses bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Knowledge doesn’t take into consideration native median incomes and residential affordability. 

4. Hire costs rose dramatically as provide struggled to maintain up with demand

Hire costs in 2022 had been 12.8% greater than they had been in 2021. Nationwide, the median hire worth rose to $2,053 in August earlier than dipping barely, the best on file and a 12.3% improve year-over-year. Following the pandemic, hire costs skyrocketed largely due to a lack of supply and a boom in demand, each of that are simply now balancing out.

• Median hire costs in New York rose to over $4,000, retaining its dominance as the costliest metro for renters within the nation.
• Most of the least costly metros skilled the best year-over-year hire will increase, together with Oklahoma Metropolis (23.3%), Cincinnati (17.6%), and Pittsburgh (14.8%).
• Oklahoma Metropolis skilled the best year-over-year hire will increase within the nation.  
• Hire progress has persistently outpaced wages for many years, however the most recent data states {that a} staggering 40% of renters spent greater than 30% of their earnings on hire from 2017-2021.

There are at present over 1.1 million rental items underneath building within the U.S., which can come accessible for hire over the subsequent yr, serving to to alleviate a part of the housing scarcity.

“We anticipate rents to fall in practically each a part of the nation by the center of 2023 as provide begins overtaking demand,” notes Taylor Marr, Redfin Deputy Chief Economist. “Whereas renters usually get the very best deal in the course of the winter months as demand is decrease, rents are persevering with to ease. Due to this, there received’t be as a lot of a seasonal improve come spring, and thus persistence for deal will repay. And don’t be afraid to barter; some landlords could also be open to concessions like a free month’s hire or free parking.”

The highest ten costliest cities for renters in 2022

The highest ten least costly cities for renters in 2022

Knowledge consists of the 2022 aggregated median hire costs for every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in comparison with 2021 information from the identical interval. Knowledge is the median of all 0-3 bed room rental houses. 

5. Homebuyers trying to relocate favored Solar-Belt cities

24.1% of homebuyers appeared to maneuver to a unique metro in the course of the three months ending in November. That is on par with the file excessive of 24.2% within the third quarter and up from 19.1% in 2019. 

• Homebuyers appeared to maneuver to sunny, comparatively reasonably priced areas, with Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Phoenix being the preferred locations.
• Homebuyers appeared to maneuver away from costly coastal metros like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, which topped the record.
• 100% of houses in lots of in style relocation metros skilled extreme drought previously yr, together with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento.

“Much like 2021, continued progress in distant work and a need for housing affordability drove relocation patterns in 2022,” Marr continues. “Nevertheless, traits in some in style locations reversed course after they grew to become too in style, aggressive, and costly. Cities like Salt Lake Metropolis, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and San Antonio all declined in reputation in 2022.”

Knowledge is the p.c of Redfin.com customers looking for houses exterior their metro. Knowledge is the yr median mixture of a number of three month shifting aggregates and doesn’t embody September-December. Sustain with the newest migration information right here. 

6. Inflation rose at a file tempo, affecting each side of the housing market

The costs of products and providers rose to six.48% yr over yr in November, the best share since August 1982 and greater than double the speed from November 2021. The truth is, inflation charges have doubled in comparison with the earlier yr in each month since June. Rising costs severely restricted shopper spending and slowed practically each side of the housing market. 

• • To fight the historic inflation, the Fed raised its goal rate of interest to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
  • Skyrocketing rates of interest precipitated mortgage charges to rise and elevated fears of a recession, retaining homebuyers out of the housing market.
  • Inflation rose the quickest in pandemic boomtowns due partly to the sudden leap in home costs, which is a key contributor to inflation.

Knowledge courtesy of FRED. Knowledge measures core CPI (much less meals and power) via November 2022. 

7. Mortgage charges ballooned to just about 7% in response to file inflation

After many years of falling mortgage charges, in 2022, charges climbed to just about 7% in each October and November, greater than any level since 2002. The truth is, from October 2021 to October 2022, mortgage charges doubled in a single yr for the primary time in historical past. 

Because the yr got here to a detailed, optimistic inflation information helped cut back housing rates of interest to under 7%.

• In in style migration metros like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin, greater mortgage charges and costly dwelling costs harm patrons essentially the most.
• In Phoenix, for instance, as mortgage charges climbed in Could and June, solely 21.5% of houses had been reasonably priced to patrons with a $2,500 month-to-month mortgage price range – a 28.5% drop from 2021.

Excessive inflation and rising mortgage charges usually deter patrons, however in case you’re capable of afford it, possession often is the higher choice. “Homeownership is a long-term funding that may result in important web price features, even with charges above 6%,” advises Dean Hayes, Space Gross sales Supervisor with Bay Equity, a Redfin firm. “Mortgage charges will probably go down within the new yr, which means extra dwelling patrons will return to the market, creating elevated competitors and fewer room for negotiation.”

8. Housing stock rose after hitting a file low

10.7 million houses had been listed on the market via November, up 11.2% in comparison with the 9.5 million houses listed via November in 2021. Within the three months ending November 2022, the variety of houses on the market elevated by 15% yr over yr, the largest improve on file. 

As mortgage charges rose alongside inflation, extra patrons determined to remain put, permitting stock to extend. Since December 2019, stock has declined yr over yr till it lastly rose in June 2022.

“Consumers have extra leverage now than they’ve since 2010,” advises San Francisco Redfin agent Josh Felder. “Even with greater mortgage charges, in case you intend to remain put for longer than 5 years, it’s an excellent funding. Houses are forecast to nonetheless admire, even in gentle of present circumstances. Sellers ought to perceive that the market continues to be shifting. Houses don’t promote in 5 days, nicely over record worth, anymore.”

Stock and provide are calculated in rolling 90-day intervals, e.g., January 2022 information is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, via January 31, 2022.

9. Months of provide dropped to a near-record low of simply 1.2 months

Whereas stock measures the variety of houses at present accessible on the market, months of provide measures the period of time it could take these houses to promote. 4 to 5 months of housing provide is taken into account the optimum benchmark. Lower than three months of housing provide usually implies that there are extra patrons than sellers, whereas a better quantity means there are extra sellers than patrons. Stock and provide usually transfer collectively. 

Nationwide, months of housing provide dipped to simply over 1.2 months in March earlier than slowly rebounding in the summertime. Yr over yr, months of provide has declined virtually each month since January 2020. 

• As patrons retreated resulting from excessive inflation and rates of interest, months of provide started to develop in July and August, reaching 2.3 months of provide by September.
• In Seattle, months of provide reached a near-record low of simply 15.5 days in January and February, the bottom of any main metropolitan space.

“We’re shortly working again towards a balanced market, which is three to 6 months of stock,” says Seattle-area Redfin agent Brian Shields. “We’ve been in a vendor’s market with lower than 5 months of stock for a number of years, till halfway via this yr. Consumers now have much more selections than they did final Spring.”

Stock and provide are calculated in 90-day intervals, e.g., January 2022 information is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, via January 31, 2022.

10. New building took up a rising share of housing stock 

There have been 1.25 million privately-owned new houses constructed within the U.S. via November 2022, up 3% from a yr in the past. As inflation rose and the market slowed, builders started slowing their manufacturing to unload what they already had. 

New building has been taking on a rising portion of total housing provide since 2011, when constructing rebounded after the monetary disaster. This pattern intensified in 2021 and solely not too long ago started to decelerate. “When you’re a purchaser, think about new building houses,” advises Kim Stearns, a Northern Idaho Redfin agent. “Due to a list buildup, many builders have one to 4 houses they’d love to shut on and can usually provide incentives.”  

• Over 63% of recent builds had been single-family houses, up 2% yr over yr
• New building begins dropped from their peak of 164,000 in April to 111,000 in November

Knowledge courtesy of Census.gov. 

11. Residence gross sales fell practically 17% yr over yr 

5.62 million U.S. houses bought via November, down 16.6% yr over yr, a pointy lower from the 6.74 million bought in 2021 throughout the identical interval. On the whole, between 4 and 7 million houses promote per yr, with the historic common sitting at just over 5 million. Yr-over-year dwelling gross sales decreased in each month of 2022, with October and November posting the sharpest declines. 

• Simply 376,000 houses bought in November, down 37.4% yr over yr and a seasonally-adjusted historic low (since 2001).
• June was the busiest month with 626,641 houses bought, a 15.2% year-over-year dip.

Knowledge was collected via November.

12. Median days on market rose at a file tempo, signaling a dramatic turnaround from 2021’s breakneck tempo

In 2022, houses spent a median of simply 24 days in the marketplace, an 8.4% improve yr over yr in comparison with the 22 days in the marketplace in 2021. Since 2020, a housing provide crunch has been attributable to provide chain points, a power lack of homebuilding, and a rise in demand. In 2022, time in the marketplace ticked up as homebuilding started to catch as much as demand and excessive mortgage and inflation charges restricted patrons’ spending energy. 

“Attributable to a slowing economic system and layoffs within the tech sector close to the top of the yr, many patrons paused their dwelling search resulting from affordability and job safety,” notes Frank Vettesse III, a San Francisco Redfin agent. “This was one in all many components that contributed to the dramatic slowdown in gross sales.”

• Could was the busiest month of the yr, with houses spending a median of simply 17 days in the marketplace.
• Within the 4 weeks ending December 4th, houses spent a median of 37 days in the marketplace, the slowest month of 2022 and the largest year-over-year slowdown on file.

13. 14% of energetic dwelling listings skilled worth drops 

On common, 14% of energetic houses on the market had worth drops in 2022, up 4.7% yr over yr. In October, 22.6% of listings had worth drops, a decades-long excessive. The truth is, from February via July, the variety of houses with worth drops rose from 5.7% to 19.5%, a record-fast improve. “The shift was dramatic,” says Christy Seashore, a Seattle-area Redfin agent. “The patrons who didn’t safe a house in the course of the top of competitors at the moment are bidding low. For instance, the identical sort of dwelling that patrons had been prepared to supply $200,000 over record worth at the moment are providing $200,000 under record worth.” 

• In Denver, 47% of houses skilled reductions in worth, the best share of any main metropolis.
• Despite the fact that worth drops had been widespread, median sale costs nonetheless elevated in virtually each metro within the county. 
• Many pandemic-era migration hotspots, resembling Tampa, Las Vegas, and West Palm Seashore, had a big share of listings with worth drops as nicely.

“As sellers with stale listings grew to become more and more anxious to get their properties bought, we noticed a steep rise in worth drops via the summer season right here in Washington State,” says Darlene Haselton, a Tacoma, WA Redfin agent. “At present, houses which can be contemporary in the marketplace are beginning to transfer extra shortly. As mortgage charges dip additional, in-demand properties could begin receiving a number of presents.” 

The highest 5 cities with the best share of worth drops in 2022

Knowledge consists of the median worth drops out of all energetic listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

14. 55% of houses had a bidding struggle

55% of houses had bidding wars in 2022, down from 64% in 2021. Coastal metros skilled the best charges of bidding wars, together with Boston (69.8%) and Los Angeles (67.7%). 

Nevertheless, nationwide, bidding wars fell from 72% to 35% from February to November. A worsening economic system, greater mortgage charges, and a rise in provide contributed to the slowdown.

Shauna Pendleton, a Boise, ID Redfin agent, advises sellers to be affected person and watch for mortgage charges to drop. “Except a house is priced $100,000 or extra underneath market worth, bidding wars are largely non-existent. Our group nonetheless hears of some multiple-offer conditions; in these instances, it’s usually a luxurious dwelling in a high-demand neighborhood that’s priced very aggressively.” 

The highest 5 metros with the best share of bidding wars in 2022

Knowledge consists of the median share of bidding wars throughout energetic listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

15. Over 30% of houses had been bought with money in 2022

30.7% of houses had been bought with all money, up 2% yr over yr. In October (the newest information accessible), 32% of houses had been paid for with all money, up 2% yr over yr and the best share since 2014. 

• Florida was the preferred state for all-cash purchases, particularly Jacksonville and West Palm Seashore.
• Costly west coast metros, together with Oakland, San Jose, and Seattle, had the bottom share of all-cash purchases.

Knowledge is from a Redfin evaluation of county data throughout 39 of essentially the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, relationship again via 2011. Knowledge doesn’t embody November or December.

16. Actual property buyers bought practically 20% of obtainable listings, a brand new file

Vying to capitalize on the housing and rental increase, buyers bought 233,701 houses in 2022 via September, a record-breaking 19.1% of all listings. Multifamily residential properties constituted the biggest share of investor market share, with a median of 30% of those properties being bought by buyers. 

Pandemic boomtowns grew to become the biggest investor hotspots, particularly in Solar-Belt metros.

The highest 5 metros with the biggest investor market shares in 2022

Knowledge is analyzed on a quarterly foundation and consists of all property sorts except in any other case acknowledged. Complete share is the typical of knowledge from January-September. Knowledge doesn’t embody the final quarter of 2022. 

17. Luxurious dwelling gross sales skilled their largest year-over-year decline on file

In 2022, there have been 258,733 luxurious houses bought within the U.S., down 27% yr over yr and the largest decline since 2012. Lively listings dropped even additional, falling by 32.7% yr over yr. The median sale worth for a luxurious dwelling was $1,080,000, up 14.8% yr over yr. Costs reached their peak of $1,120,000 in the course of the three months ending Could, a 15.7% year-over-year improve. Nevertheless, worth progress, listings, and gross sales slowed considerably as demand cooled later within the yr. 

• Within the three months ending November thirtieth, luxurious dwelling gross sales fell by 38.1%, the biggest drop on file. 
• Luxurious houses spent a median of 32 days in the marketplace via November, up 28.9% yr over yr
• Tampa was the quickest rising luxurious market, with costs rising by 32.3% yr over yr
• Luxurious dwelling gross sales declined by 47% in San Jose, the largest fall of any main metro

“In Seattle, luxurious listings noticed the biggest reductions in worth,” continues Seattle agent Christy Seashore. “Within the present market, most sellers with a worth level of $1.5 million or greater want to organize to make their dwelling stand out among the many competitors. As a rule, sellers are having to barter their worth and phrases with patrons.”

Luxurious houses are outlined as the highest 5% of listings in a given market. Values are three month shifting aggregates ending on the date proven, e.g., November 2022 spans September, October, and November 2022. Knowledge doesn’t embody the three months ending December 31. 

Wanting ahead

The 2022 housing market was chaotic, however what does Redfin predict for 2023? Learn our 2023 Housing Market Predictions to study extra.

All information was compiled by the week ending December 23, 2022. Knowledge is aggregated from January to November and doesn’t embody December except acknowledged in any other case. All information is from Redfin, FRED, and/or public data. For questions on metrics, learn our metrics definitions web page.